Category Archives: Polling

Trump Sets A Record Likely Never To Be Broken

Maybe not the one he had in mind, but y’know, things don’t always go as planned. The daily Gallup tracking poll put Donald Trump at majority level disapproval on Saturday, January 28, 8 days after he was sworn in to office. President Trump’s actions during his first week in office have appeared to be aimed at the voters who already supported him,… Read more »

The Night Before Tomorrow

For over 35 years, a gentlemen’s agreement between the broadcast networks – and later the cable operators too – and major print media has prevented the dissemination of exit polls or other information about election results before the polls close in each state. Tomorrow, that agreement gets shattered. Slate will be providing real time projections on vote totals throughout the… Read more »

NEW POLL: Clinton 48-42 In VA

Kevin Gillogly alerts me to a new poll from Christopher Newport University in Virginia puts Clinton up 48-42, with polling completed yesterday, November 6.  Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is leading Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by six points in Virginia, 48 percent to 42 percent, according to a survey by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University…. Read more »

NEW POLLS: Clinton By 11 In NH, 4 In PA [UPDATED]

Two new polls in battleground states bring good news for Hillary Clinton. She’s ahead by an eye-popping 11 points (49-38) in a University of New Hampshire poll, and by 4 points (44-40 with Johnson/Stein included, 47-41 in a two way matchup) in a Muhlenberg College poll in Pennsylvania. The New Hampshire poll is assuredly too high, although wouldn’t it be great if it was… Read more »

The “Other Nate” Speaks

In addition to everyone’s favorite new nerdy pollster Princeton Professor Sam Wang and Fightin’ Ryan Grim of Huffington Post, there’s another guy we should check in with. In 2012, the New York Times’ polling analysis was done by Nate Silver, as the Times had brought Silver and on board back then. The Times and 538 parted ways not long… Read more »

Nate Silver Loses His Shit At HuffPost’s Ryan Grim

If you remember 2012 (I’d just as soon not, for personal reasons), the hot GOP issue was “unskewing the polls.” Republicans claimed that pollsters were simply missing millions of conservative voters, and that when all was said and done, Mitt Romney was going to win pretty much every state. That didn’t go too well for the GOP in 2012. Now, as… Read more »

Wherein I Tell You What’s Gonna Happen

Putting aside all the other 10,000 astounding and depressing things about this election, it’s time to call the media to account for its bullshit dance steps on the horse race. First, declare that the emails are again bad news for Clinton, despite not knowing what’s in them. Second, blast that story line 24-7. Third, find a poll – any poll… Read more »


Last night, my new nerd crush Sam Wang of Princeton was on MSNBC with Lawrence O’Donnell explaining in (mostly) understandable terms why he sees a 99+% likelihood of a Clinton victory. You also get the hilarious bonus of Sam Wang on a split screen with Beyoncé. File that one under “Shit You Never Thought You’d Ever Ever See.” Enjoy.  Oh,… Read more »

Friday Late Night Breathing Exercises

Back when I first started obsessing online about polls and trends and probabilities (2004), there weren’t a whole lot of resources. There was (still with the coolest maps around), there was and there was Real Clear Politics. Not much else. I’ve always liked RCP because they were great data collectors. They were pretty right wing in their editorial… Read more »

PA: Clinton By 11, McGinty By 12

More reasons to chill out, and also to take credit for all the canvassing us Marylanders have been doing up north. Top of the ticket Democrats have their biggest lead yet in swing state Pennsylvania in a new poll from Franklin & Marshall College. Hillary Clinton and Democratic Senate candidate Katie McGinty have double-digit leads in their races in Pennsylvania, according… Read more »