Votecastr Report #3: The Lady Is Lookin’ Good

-686Days -15Hours -45Minuts -47Seconds

Whole series of new numbers. Bottom line: looking good, getting better or at worst holding steady.

Florida (74.9% of expected turnout)

Clinton 3,784,792 (49.0%)

Trump.  3,513,051 (45.0%)

If this is even remotely accurate, then pretty close to game over with that turnout figure. Accuracy, however, is the question. Let’s see what happens.

Iowa (55.9% of expected turnout)

Clinton 444,300 (51.3%)

Trump 421,396 (48.7%)

Note: the percentage breakdown has Trump leading 46.0-45.0 but that obviously doesn’t square with these numbers. Hazards of real time updates in action here. I’ve refreshed a few times waiting for one or the other number to update but it hasn’t happened yet. So I’ve calculated a two party split above. We’ll see how this shakes out.

Nevada (58.7% of expected turnout)

Clinton 350,538 (47.0%)

Trump 340,679 (44.0%)

Closer than we might have thought based on the early vote data, but it is a meaningful lead.

New Hampshire (44.0% of expected turnout)

Clinton 145,597 (47.0%)

Trump 134,626 (43.0%)

This is very encouraging, as New Hampshire is red on a lot of smart people’s maps this week.

Ohio (59.8% of expected turnout)

Clinton 1,611,042 (46.0%)

Trump 1,556,616 (45.0%)

If this holds up, the party’s gonna start early for Democrats. But it’s a narrow lead.

Pennsylvania (45.9% of expected turnout)

Clinton 1,302,997 (48.0%)

Trump 1,214,827 (44.0%)

Proceeding as expected. I see a 4-5 point win here.

Wisconsin (47.9% of expected turnout)

Clinton 776,300 (49.0%)

Trump 654,692 (43.0%)

Nothing to raise eyebrows or blood pressure here, either.

Colorado (vote by mail, no vote totals)

Clinton 47, Trump 42

Sanity restored. The margin has doubled since this morning.

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