NEW POLLS: Clinton By 11 In NH, 4 In PA [UPDATED]

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Two new polls in battleground states bring good news for Hillary Clinton. She’s ahead by an eye-popping 11 points (49-38) in a University of New Hampshire poll, and by 4 points (44-40 with Johnson/Stein included, 47-41 in a two way matchup) in a Muhlenberg College poll in Pennsylvania.

The New Hampshire poll is assuredly too high, although wouldn’t it be great if it was right? That said, it’s almost certainly good news for Democrats. In the same poll, Maggie Hassan leads Kelly Ayotte 48-43.

In Pennsylvania, the new poll is right in line with most projections, providing more validation that Clinton is highly likely to win. She has not trailed in a PA general election poll since early June, covering several dozen surveys.

More reasons to feel good about where things will end up tomorrow night. Now go back to making it happen!

[UPDATE] There’s also a new Emerson College poll that puts Clinton up on Trump by one point, 45-44. As stated above, I would be surprised – pleasantly – if Clinton won New Hampshire by 11 points. I’d guess the “real” number is several points less than that. But not as low as one point. In the comments, I analyze the two pollsters using 538 pollster ratings and come out with an adjusted range of 2.3-9.3 points. Given the MOEs, a Clinton lead of 5-6 points is probably a reasonable surmise here. We’ll find out soon enough!

4 thoughts on “NEW POLLS: Clinton By 11 In NH, 4 In PA [UPDATED]

    1. Jonathan Shurberg Post author

      Let’s try that again. I looked up both UNH and Emerson on 538’s pollster ratings (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings). UNH is rated B+ with a mean-reverted Dem bias of 1.7%. Emerson is rated B with a Republican bias of 1.3%. I suspect we have two polls here at the extremes of the likely range right now. If we take 1.7 points off the 11 point UNH lead and add 1.3 points to the Emerson lead, we’d have a range of 2.3-9.3% lead for Clinton. With MOEs of 3.7 (NH) and 5.5 (PA), the likely answer is somewhere in the middle. But we will see tomorrow – one of those pollsters is gonna look pretty bad.

      Reply

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