Wherein I Tell You What’s Gonna Happen

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Putting aside all the other 10,000 astounding and depressing things about this election, it’s time to call the media to account for its bullshit dance steps on the horse race. First, declare that the emails are again bad news for Clinton, despite not knowing what’s in them. Second, blast that story line 24-7. Third, find a poll – any poll – that shows even the slightest move in Trump’s direction and flog it for all its worth, even if the “move” is likely statistical noise. Fourth, lower the bar for what constitutes a toss up state, and ignore the fact that there’s less than a week to go and Trump has no ground game. Finally, take no account of partisan or outlier polls, but include them and allow them to tip your meaningless “polls of polls.” Repeat as necessary.

Real Clear Politics has Pennsylvania as a tossup state. Really? Based on what? Certainly not this.

And who in their right mind includes a partisan poll in their analysis at this point in the race? RCP is including a GOP outfit called Remington Research in their poll analysis. Remington is run by this odious guy. You think maybe there’s some bias built in? If he was a left wing guy you think RCP would use him? Ha.

There’s more. But I don’t have time today to pull all of it apart. Suffice to say that the media wants a horse race and Republicans are as usual willing to lie to create the impression they’re winning.

They’re not. All the data on early voting is favorable to Clinton, except when it’s been cherry picked to show otherwise. For example, there are fewer black voters this year. Well, duh. I could have told you that a year ago. But for those African-American voters who do show up, how are they breaking? Heavily for Clinton, in many cases by a wider margin than for Obama. Why? Because Trump is an existential threat, which neither McCain nor Romney were. All those polls showing Trump at zero percent black support? Nobody talks about those. Doesn’t fit the horse race scenario.

I could go on. But you get the idea. To finish, here’s my map. 323-215. If I’m off by more than a state or two, I’ll be surprised.

And as always, don’t forget to breathe.

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