EXCLUSIVE: Maryland Early Vote Data

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A number of posts online have set forth some of the Maryland early vote data. What I have to present you, in a delayed post, is EV data that breaks down turnout for each early vote site (69 in all) by party (Democratic, Republican, and other). We have also aggregated the data by county in similar format.

It’s complete through yesterday, October 31. Here’s some topline highlights.

The early vote stories that trumpet how we have already surpassed our 2102 EV figures with three more days of voting is a bit misleading. In 2012, we have 55 hours of early voting over 5 days at 46 sites. Through Monday in 2016, we have had 60 hours of Early Voting over 5 days at 69 sites. Therefore we should be doing better with 50% more sites and 5 more hours. But the figures are still good and just as important we can make a good apple to apple comparison as of Monday early voting with all of 2012 early Voting. Details on that tomorrow. But now let’s look at 2016 EV data…

Over 515,000 early votes have been cast (as the spreadsheet shows, this particular data set includes not just early votes, but provisionals and spoiled ballots as well, so it won’t match up precisely with some of the other data you may see elsewhere).

Democrats are outperforming Republicans by any measure. Democrats constitute 55% of all registered voters, but account for just over 66% of the early votes cast. Republicans are 26% of registered voters, but only 21.7% of early voters. Other voters, including minor party and unaffiliateds, are also underperforming: they constitute almost 19% of registered voters, but only 12% of those who have voted early. These ratios among Dems, Repubs and Others are virtually identical to the 2012 Early Vote figures.

This year, every county, from mighty Montgomery to tiny Garrett, has seen higher turnout percentages for Democrats than for Republicans. The two counties with the biggest spreads between Dems and Repubs are Howard (8.6% more Howard Democrats have voted than Republicans) and Montgomery (7.65%). Talbot County, a perennial overperformer in early voting, has the highest percentage of early voters (just under 22%) as well as all three party breakdowns. Impressive.

Among large counties, Montgomery just edges out Prince George’s for Democratic turnout by percentage (17.57% to 17.48%) and also has the highest raw number of early voters (just under 95,000). Prince George’s comes in at 90,000. Baltimore County is far back at 73,000, buoyed by the highest raw number of GOP early voters (16,000).

However, I think the best performance of all has to go to Howard County. Yeah, HoCo! How good is Howard’s turnout? This good: Anne Arundel County has 56,000 more registered Democrats than Howard, yet Howard has turned out only around 1,600 fewer Dems than has Anne Arundel. Howard’s 21.78% Democratic turnout through five days is bested only by much smaller Talbot County, and far surpasses all the other large counties by anywhere between four and ten percent.

Who’s underperforming on the Democratic side? In order: 1) Allegany (6.38% of all registered Dems), 2) Washington County (9.12%); 3) Cecil (10.89%), 4) Dorchester (11.24%) and 5) Baltimore City (11.34%). Through Monday 15.83% of all registered Dems have voted early.

Even the best of our underperformers are doing better than our GOP friends. Across the state, 11.01% of all registered Republicans have voted early, as have 8.62% of Other voters.

We’ve also compiled turnout data for each individual early voting center, including partisan breakdowns. So you can see not only how many people voted at a particular EV site, but how well the partisan turnout went for each site as well. The breakdown of all 69 early vote centers is set forth here.

A few highlights. The top 10 sites, the state average and the three lowest performing sites are on this one pager. Two Howard County sites are second and fourth on the list, three from Prince George’s, two from Baltimore County, and one each from MoCo (Silver Spring!), Carroll County, and Harford County. MoCo also has three of the next five (Germantown, Bohrer Park, and Potomac).

A special note for Silver Spring. Yes, we’re a hard core Democratic area, but the numbers at the Civic Center are amazing. District 20 has about seven Democrats for every Republican, but turnout at the Civic Center has been vastly outpacing that ratio. Through Monday, the numbers are 10,975 Democrats and 540 Republicans. That’s over 20-1, an incredible number for such a high performing EV site. So huzzah for that.

As I noted during the primary, early voting falls off pretty much everywhere on the weekend. After two days of over 125,000 early voters on both Thursday and Friday, the numbers fell off to 82,000 on Saturday and 49,000 on Sunday, before rebounding to 105,000 on Monday. The one county that does relatively better on weekends is Montgomery County, so much so that not only does MoCo outperform Prince George’s on the weekend (31,000 to 23,000), but does so even among Democrats (22,000 Dems to 20,000 for Prince George’s), despite the fact that PG has over 70,000 more Democrats than Montgomery County.

Finally, the top five performing sites for GOP turnout are: Westminster, Bel Air, Perry Hall, Ellicott City, and Severna Park in Anne Arundel County.

Overall, very good numbers for Democrats, and very good numbers for early voting in general.

As more data comes in, I’ll be updating the spreadsheets for the next three days of early voting statistics.

Happy data gazing!

 

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