The Creek Is Rising . . . .

-602Days -18Hours -11Minuts -8Seconds

. . . and I’m pretty sure the ol’ dam, she ain’t gonna hold much longer.

For those of you disillusioned by yesterday’s Post poll showing Hillary Clinton “only” leading by four points, I believed then, and the evidence is now forming, that said poll was a major outlier and that her lead was larger. Even the Post’s own reporting showed that things have worsened substantially for Trump in swing states. Other polls have shown Clinton with as much as a double digit lead.

Today, the hammer is falling on Trump. Clinton is at 50% in a Monmouth poll, with a 12 point lead on Trump with likely voters.

Hillary Clinton has opened up a 12-point national lead over Donald Trump among likely voters with less than a month to go before Election Day, a new poll finds.

Clinton takes 50 percent support in the Monmouth University survey released Monday, which has Trump at 38 percent. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has 5 percent support, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein takes 2 percent.
Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, led by only 4 points in the same poll last month, edging Trump 46 percent to 42 percent.

It’s the third recent poll to show Clinton leading by double digits nationally, although other surveys show a tighter race. An ABC News/Washington Post survey released over the weekend put her advantage at only 4 points over Trump, the Republican nominee, well within that survey’s margin of error.

And then there’s this story in the Post, which concludes that no candidate has recovered from as big a deficit as 8.9 points (the current Real Clear Politics average) this late in a campaign. Add in Trump’s lack of any kind of competent GOTV operation, and the recent unprecedented schisms that have emerged in the GOP, and the likelihood is that a double digit drubbing is very, very foreseeable. (I’ve got a bet going where I took Clinton and gave six points. Looking pretty good right now.)

Such a result, besides the shock wave that it will cause to the current political stalemate, will also overwhelm the ability of the GOP House majority to withstand the tsunami. I’ll leave to others how many GOP seats will be in play with a 10 point Clinton head wind, but it’ll be a hell of a lot more than the 30 necessary to take the majority. Maybe 50-60?

And as for this question for Clinton, a chance like this may never come around again in our lifetimes, even for you young pups out there. Carpe Diem, Madam Secretary. Damn the torpedos. Live free or die. Leave it all on the field. I think I’ve run out of trite cliches now. Here’s a particularly lurid one from H.L. Mencken that I’ve always appreciated:

“Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”

Hoist the flag, Hillary, and let’s go grab as many seats as we can, because we’re gonna need them all (and then some) in 2018.

Leave a Reply