The battleground state map shrunk a little bit today as Donald Trump’s campaign has pulled out of the swing state of Virginia and will shift its resources to other states that could make up his path to 270. A path getting more narrow by the day.
If we’re being realistic, Virginia was never much of a battleground to being with. With the exception of a handful of polls showing a tight race, Clinton has had a pretty comfortable lead here throughout the campaign. Her lead is seven points in the RealClearPolitics aggregate and six points according to the Huffington Post’s average of polls. Every election forecasting model puts Clinton’s chance of winning the state above 90%.
Why didn’t Trump have much of a shot at winning the state? Demographics. Virginia is a younger, better educated, and more diverse state; especially in the northern counties outside of Washington, DC. There simply is not enough “Old Virginia” voters to carry Trump to a victory here.
Having popular former Governor and current Senator Tim Kaine on Hillary Clinton’s ticket certainly didn’t help matters for Trump either.
So with Virginia’s 13 electoral votes all but conceded to Clinton, here is what the current map looks like:
Clinton is now four electoral votes away from 270.
Keep in mind, the map I posted is a very generous one for Trump. Clinton has a mid-single digit lead in New Hampshire right now, which would be enough to give her 270 if the numbers hold.
On top of that, she has pulled ahead in both Florida and North Carolina over the last couple of weeks and has leads, albeit smaller ones, in Ohio and Nevada. And if we really want to add insult to injury, the Republican nominee still has an outside shot of losing in Arizona, Georgia, and Utah. UTAH!
There is still time for
Bill Cosby Donald Trump to turn things around, but it is quickly running out. And the fact that he has still not sealed the deal in a few red states and is pulling resources from one of the top battlegrounds in the country is a pretty clear indication of how much trouble he is in right now.