Jon posted an article this morning agreeing with MSNBC’s Richard Wolffe’s suggestion that the 2016 race for the white house is at the point of no return. I am not quite ready to go there yet, but some brand new polls out of Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin this morning are certainly helping me get there.
An NBC News poll shows Clinton leading Trump 49% to 37% in Pennsylvania in a four-way race; and 51% to 39% in a two-way race. Which is not all that surprising. Clinton has led in Pennsylvania throughout, but if anything, this follows the trends of two other surveys last week from respected pollsters Franklin & Marshall and Monmouth which showed her up by nine and 10 points respectively.
In Florida, the NBC Poll has Clinton up 45% to 42% in a four-way race, and 46% to 44% in the head-to-head match-up. This is just the latest poll to confirm some obvious movement towards Mrs. Clinton over the last two weeks.
Prior to their Sept. 26 debate, it was a chose your own adventure, of sorts, in the Sunshine State. Some polls had Trump leading; others showed Clinton ahead. But since the first debate, seven polls have been conducted in Florida and six of them have Clinton leading anywhere between one and five points.
The big revelation from this mornings release comes from CBS News, where they show Clinton ahead of Trump 46% to 42% in Ohio.
With the exception of Iowa, Ohio has been the swing state Clinton has struggled in the most. Polls throughout September, including a few after the first debate, showed Trump with a lead. Now it looks like Trump’s prior advantage in the state is either shrinking or gone completely.
CBS is the third poll in Ohio this week to show Clinton with a lead. A Monmouth poll has her up by two, and a Public Policy poll, a democratic leaning polling firm, shows her up by one.
In addition to Ohio, CBS also has Clinton ahead by four points in Wisconsin.
NBC also polled the Senate races in Florida and Pennsylvania. Kate McGinty leads incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey by four points in their race. No real news there since McGinty has held onto a slight lead since the summer.
The race to really keep an eye on is the one in Florida where Marco Rubio only leads Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy by two points. NBC’s previous poll between the two back in August had him up by six. Rubio is still the favorite here, but a couple of other polls have suggested Murphy, while still behind by around four points, is within striking distance.
Keep in mind, these polls were all conducted BEFORE Friday’s release of Trump’s 2005 comments. Factor this in with another 80 million people watching a possibly unhinged Donald Trump in the debate tonight and these poll numbers, for president and in down-ballot races, could get out of hand fast.
We might be reaching the point of no return.