On the one hand, well, duh. On the other hand, if educated white women continue to abandon Donald Trump as this Post article shows they have so far, fuggedaboudit.
The potential for the 2016 election to widen America’s racial voting chasm even further is nothing new. But Washington Post-ABC News polls have also identified a related dynamic: White Americans are splintering along education and gender lines at rates not seen in at least three decades.
These contours are well-known among political watchers; whites without four-year college degrees and men tend to be more Republican than women and college grads. But while these cleavages are seen across elections, it’s easy to forget that the gaps are typically not all that large — at least in comparison to this year.
Take 2012. Mitt Romney won 61 percent of non-college whites compared with 56 percent of white college grads. The gap was nearly identical between white men and white women, 62 and 56 percent.
Now, according to the latest Post-ABC poll released last week: Donald Trump received 65 percent support among white registered voters without a four-year college degree, compared with 46 percent among white college graduates, a 19-point gap. If the margin holds, it would easily be the largest education gap among whites in presidential elections since 1980.
Given the above numbers, I can’t imagine how they translate to a 46-44 Trump lead in last week’s poll. But since national polls this far out aren’t worth squat, I’m not going to spend any time trying to figure it out. Suffice to say that such a poll should be viewed with some major stink eye.
And no, I don’t belive that the education/gender chasm identified by the Post is likely to hold to such an extent. But it makes sense that there’s a significant chunk of highly educated GOP women voters who, whatever their other opinions, just aren’t willing to vote for the vulgar talking yam. Hurray for education!