Whatever we saw in the LD16/18/20 analysis, throw that out from here on in. It’s David Trone’s world, y’all upcounty and Frederick/Carroll folks just live in it. In the remaining four LDs of Montgomery County, Trone got 40.2% of the vote to Matthews’ 30.7% to Raskin’s 29.1%.
LD19 is an interesting place. Its representation in Annapolis is solidly progressive, but the electorate is a patchwork of older religious communities, pockets of Hispanic voters, a solid core of African-American communities, and a high number of federal workers. David Trone, rich guy from Potomac, won the district, far outpacing both Kathleen Matthews and Jamie Raskin. Once again, Matthews couldn’t catch a break – she finally outpolled Raskin, only to see Trone swoop past her by almost 900 votes.
Another interesting note: Ana Sol Gutierrez and Will Jawando both overperformed in LD19, taking a collective 16% of the vote. Will Jawando outpolled Jamie Raskin in 13-02, earning almost 25% of his district-wide total in one precinct. Gutierrez similarly earned over a quarter of her vote in two precincts (13-35 and 13-64). But the same candidate won all three of these heavily minority jurisdictions – David Trone. In fact, out of the 22 precincts in LD19, Trone won 13 of them, often in dominant fashion. Raskin won six, but also finished in third place or worse in 14 precincts. Matthews only won three precincts, but finished ahead of Raskin, but by a narrow margin.
What we are seeing, again, is a consistent pattern. David Trone was able to get votes – more than anyone else – in a wide variety of locations. Was this just an outpouring of money? Or did he have a more sophisticated plan than anyone recognized? I can’t answer that question – yet – but the consistent pattern of peeling away votes across multiple legislative districts makes me believe it was more than just random chance. We’ll see when more detailed data becomes a available.
Next up: Legislative District 14.