EXCLUSIVE: CD8 Numbers & Analysis

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You want numbers? Oh, I’ve got numbers. Lots and lots of numbers. In fact, I’m pretty sure my numbers are more accurate than the moving circus tent that is the Montgomery County Board of Elections.

How bad is it? Well, right now they’re reporting two different sets of county totals in the CD8 race, one on the state election site and one on their precinct list. And quick sidebar, whoever thought this new software for the precinct list reporting was a good idea should be fired. Right now. It’s impossible to generate a list of precincts by congressional district, which means that it took me about six [expletive] hours to work through the entire CD8 precinct list by legislative district. And every time you go to a new precinct (138 of ’em in CD8, trust me on that) you have to click again for the CD Dem primary. To the BOE: a pox on you and your descendants. To the rest of you: you’re welcome.

Not only that, but neither the county nor the state saw fit to link to the precinct results, even though they were posted LAST WEEK. Carroll County and Frederick County both have the link posted on their website. Thanks, MoCo!

MoCo was, as usual, last to report, they’ve been the only ones to have to update their Election Day returns (at least three times now, and it could easily have been more), and they’re STILL not right, as the precinct data doesn’t match the totals they’re reporting. But (a) they’re slowly moving in the right direction, and (b) I’ve triple checked the precinct numbers, so (c) I’m pretty confident that my numbers are more right than the BOE. Which is (a) alarming, and (b) kind of cool. More seriously, when is the Board of Elections going to get its act together? None of my complaints are new.

So (taaa daaa!), here’s my spreadsheet.

If you want something you can download, it’s here. I will also post the detailed spreadsheets for each legislative district and Frederick and Carroll County in separate posts, so there’ll be a complete record of my data.

Some quick analysis: turnout was very high. Most predictions pegged the likely Dem turnout in the range of 70-90,000 voters. The actual turnout will be over 125,000, right around 50% of active voters.

Where did Raskin win? Early vote was key. As the first numbers went up on election night, he had a lead of 4,000 votes, which ended up being half his margin so far. And while his LD20 numbers are solid (just over 50%), turnout was not as strong here as it was in LD18 and crucially, in LD16. Perhaps more then anywhere else, Raskin has David Trone to thank for cutting enormously into what otherwise would have been Matthews strongholds. Raskin got more votes in LD16 on Election Day than anywhere else, as LD16 on Election Day accounted for one in six of all votes cast, including early and absentee/ provisional ballots, and 22% of all Election Day votes. The splitting of the LD16 vote in precinct after precinct where Matthews fell just short of Raskin crushed her chances of winning and pushed her back to third place. The same was also true in more varied ways in LD18 where Ana Sol Gutierrez (who got over 10% in her home district) joined with Trone to keep Matthews’ numbers down and allowed Raskin to pad his lead.

And while Trone clearly had a plan to bring out new voters (more on that coming up), having weakened Matthews, he himself wasn’t able to pull even with Raskin despite winning virtually everything north of the Beltway. There just weren’t enough voters in all that updistrict geography.

Where did Raskin underperform? Everywhere outside LD16, LD18 and LD20. He lost every other jurisdiction to David Trone, and only finished ahead of Matthews in LD17. This was an inside vs. outside the Beltway election, and there’s a lot more voters in Bethesda, Kensington, Silver Spring, and Takoma Park than there are upcounty and in Frederick and Carroll County.

Raskin turned out his base voters inside the Beltway, Trone and Matthews took turns hurting each other in different areas, and Gutierrez and Will Jawando each performed better than their polling numbers, if only by a little bit. But what we saw here is that a little bit plus a little bit plus a little bit, etc. ends up being a whole lot. Early vote plus strong base vote plus two rivals splitting their votes more evenly than anticipated led to a Raskin win.

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