Adam Pagnucco Assesses The CD8 Race

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Adam Pagnucco at Seventh State has written a series of posts on how each of the top three CD8 candidates could come out on top. Each one talks candidate strengths and weaknesses, has some anonymous sources commenting on the campaign, and finishes with what needs to happen for each to win. So no matter which one you want to win – or get stomped – there’s something for you in each of these analyses.

Thursday was Kathleen Matthews:

Matthews and her chief ally, Emily’s List, are running an all-female, all-the-time kind of campaign. And they are smart to do so since women account for roughly 60% of Montgomery County’s Democratic voters, no matter how you cut the electorate. If Matthews gets a majority of women, she could start with 35 points. If she adds just five more points from men, she has 40, and that’s probably good enough to win.

Friday was Jamie Raskin.

Raskin supporters tend to be very liberal, know that Raskin is very liberal, and have lots of information about the race. That message is reinforced through the grass-roots network that Raskin has built. High information voters like these almost always vote and they will have an outsize impact on a low turnout election. Turnout in Montgomery County has been trending downwards for years, and if that continues, it will favor Raskin. Under this scenario, his people will stay with him and the remaining low information voters will be divided between Matthews and Trone. Whether this will play out in the context of a competitive Democratic presidential primary is anyone’s guess, but Raskin’s base is the envy of the field and he has a good chance to win.

And today, Adam finishes with David Trone.

Because of his resource advantage, Trone doesn’t have to run a targeted race – he can communicate with everybody. His television and digital ads go out to regular voters, casual voters, non-voters, members of other parties and non-residents alike. His mail program can reach out to all registered Democrats. Raskin’s base will never abandon him and many women will go for Matthews, but there are thousands of Democrats in the district who know only one candidate: David Trone. If turnout is high and is not based just in the Downcounty areas that are the home of the district’s liberal, high-information voters, there will be lots of people who will vote for President, know nothing of Congress, and vote for U.S. House candidates based on little more than name recognition. This is the antithesis of the scenario most favorable to Jamie Raskin – a large, casual, mixed-ideology electorate who come from Carroll, Frederick and Upcounty nearly as much as they do from the Beltway region. If that happens and turnout approaches 2008 levels, David Trone could be going to Congress.

These are all solid articles. Go read them.

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