[UPDATE: here’s the Monmouth poll memo. Look particularly at Questions 6-7, which may help account at least in part for the widening Van Hollen lead. By a 26-13% margin, voters think that President Obama is supporting Van Hollen, and an actual Obama endorsement would make primary voters more likely to vote for his candidate.]
John Fritze has just published a blockbuster new poll result: according to a new Monmouth University poll, Chris Van Hollen has opened up a 16 point lead on Donna Edwards in the Senate primary.
Rep. Chris Van Hollen has a double-digit lead over rival Rep. Donna F. Edwards in a new poll released Thursday in Maryland’s competitive Senate race.
Van Hollen, a Montgomery County Democrat, is up 52 percent to 36 percent over Edwards, of Prince George’s County, in the Monmouth University Poll. The 16-point lead is the largest any declared candidate has had in the race since it began last year.
The poll is the third this month to indicate Van Hollen has a lead outside the margin of error. A Public Policy Polling survey released this week had Van Hollen up nine points.
Like other recent polls, Monmouth found sharp divides in race and gender. Van Hollen is leading among white voters (73% to 16%), while Edwards has the edge with African American voters (62% to 26%). Van Hollen had a slight edge (46 percent to 41 percent) in Baltimore and the Eastern Shore.
So in the past ten days, we’ve had Marist put Van Hollen up 6, PPP has him leading by 9, and now Monmouth has him opening up a 16 point lead. That, my friends, is what we call a positive trend line.
I’m off to hunt down the details – more later.
h/t Neal Carter for spotting this five minutes after the Sun posted it.