Today’s early vote numbers are in, and things moved as I predicted they would. Prince George’s gained on Montgomery, and Baltimore County gained on Baltimore City, But the movements were smaller than we might have expected. Here’s the updated spreadsheet through six days.
If you’ll remember, the PG/MoCo and County/City gains yesterday were around 800, and expected to accelerate based on the 2014 history with which they so closely and spookily matched up.
That didn’t happen.
Prince George’s gained 498 early votes on Montgomery today. Based on 2014, we would have expected 865. Difference is 367 in favor of MoCo.
Baltimore County gained 309 votes on Baltimore City today. We would have expected 511. Difference is 202 in favor of the City.
The Howard/Anne Arundel megalopolis continues to chug along solidly, ranking third behind the two DC suburban counties, a scant 24 voters ahead of Baltimore County. In 2014, by comparison, the HO/AA conglomerate was 2,615 votes behind Baltimore County.
Time is running out, as there’s only two days left to change things early vote-wise, and days like today don’t do much. The line is holding. Thus, I believe these numbers remain good for Chris Van Hollen, just a tiny bit less than they were yesterday.