BREAKING: PPP Poll: Van Hollen 42, Edwards 33

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With the national media circus coming to town next week with the presidential candidates, this means national polling outfits are polling our fair state of Maryland. Today brings a poll from PPP, which shows Chris Van Hollen leading Donna Edwards 42-33 with 25% undecided (oh, and some lady named Clinton leads some guy called Sanders 58-33 in some kind of race, not really sure).

Chris Van Hollen has the upper hand in the US Senate race as it heads into the final week, getting 42% in the primary to 33% for Donna Edwards. With 25% of voters undecided, things are still relatively up in the air. The key for Van Hollen is that he’s actually winning white voters (58/16) by an ever wider margin than Edwards (57/19) is winning black voters by. Van Hollen has a wide lead among men (48/31) but is more surprisingly also slightly ahead with women (37/34). Regardless of which candidate advances to the general election it should be an easy hold for Democrats.

Unlike some recent polls this one has reams of interesting cross-tabs, including some 2018 gubernatorial matchups (don’t read them, Hogan wins them all). But here’s a literal snapshot of some good ones in the Senate race.


Note several things: one, a more realistic (at least IMHO) racial split in the voter pool (51-39-10), and second, Edwards’ negatives are substantially higher than in the last poll, when both Van Hollen and Edwards were around 15-16 percent negative. Now, Van Hollen is at 15, but Edwards jumps up to 24. Is this a reaction to the super PAC ad flap of last week? Hard to say but the discrepancy is noticeable.
A couple of other tidbits: racial and gender cross tabs are predictable and surprising, respectively.



Looking at the racial and gender favorability numbers, either the whole thing is out of whack or it’s white women who are driving that higher negative number for Edwards, which is driving down her support. 


The fact that 39% of women of all races aren’t sure about Edwards’ favorability cannot be a good thing. The fact that her approval rating among white voters is net negative isn’t so hot, either.

I suspect there’ll be more polls in the next week. Stay tuned.

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