So it’s been a ridiculously busy day, but here is the early vote spreadsheet through 3 days.
Several messages here:
First, early voting fell off hugely on Saturday, normally a day when you’d think the opposite.
From Thursday to Saturday, Baltimore City dropped off by 60.4%. Baltimore County by 61%. Prince George’s County by 57.7%. Anne Arundel County by 41.6%.
Second, one county fell off by substantially less than others, only 26.0%, Montgomery County, normally the whipping boy of the state on early vote turnout, has stepped up. We have the highest number of early votes through three days, more than 1,000 over Prince George’s County.
In 2012, the last presidential primary, through three days Montgomery County (3585) had fewer early votes than both Prince George’s (4023) and Baltimore County (4449). Baltimore City was close behind with 3348. This year, the numbers are way, way up: MoCo 12,155, Prince George’s 11,033, Baltimore County 9,824, Baltimore City 9,776, Anne Arundel 5,597.
In 2014, a gubernatorial election year, the pattern was similar. Through three days, Prince George’s 6207, Baltimore 5792, Montgomery 5390, Baltimore City 5029, Anne Arundel 3073.
At least so far, Montgomery County is flexing its numbers in ways it never has before. Even as against Prince George’s, a jurisdiction with more Democrats, Montgomery County is not just keeping pace (which it has never done) but winning. Advantage Van Hollen.
Let’s see what happens when today’s numbers come out.