With the help of national correspondent and Excel spreadsheet guru Dave Asche, we’ve compiled a handy spreadsheet of all Maryland counties listing Democratic turnout and percentages by day. The BOE report has more data, but with all due respect, it’s not very well organized. This one is.
Turnout was down by 14% across the state, but it varied in potentially meaningful ways for the Senate primary. Baltimore City dropped by 32.6%, Baltimore County by 20.6%. Montgomery County, normally a poor early vote performing jurisdiction, held steadier, dropping by a minimal 2%. Prince George’s County also did better than the state average, losing only 6.8%.
So far, the early voting patterns favor Chris Van Hollen in the Senate primary. In 2014, there were 5,000 more Democratic early voters in Prince George’s County than Montgomery. This year, after two days, that spread is only 202 votes. In the Baltimore region, after an early edge for the City over the County, the County has edged ahead in early vote turnout. While there’s still six days to go, patterns are being set.
Another concern for Edwards. The 19 counties other than the Big 5 dropped by a decent bit less (11.4%) than did the larger jurisdictions (14.8%). As a one day blip, that’s a relatively de minimus number. But if it continues, it will add up, day by day.
We’ll keep an eye on all of this data as early voting continues.