Van Hollen Poll Memo

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No cross tabs available today, but here’s the memo from Fred Yang to the Van Hollen campaign:

To: Van Hollen for Senate
From: Frederick Yang
Date: April 1, 2016
Re: Recent Survey among Maryland Democratic Primary voters

Between March 28 and 30, 2016, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a statewide survey among 604 likely Democratic primary voters in Maryland. The survey, which has a margin of error of +4.1%, was conducted by telephone (cellphones and landlines) using a sample of registered Maryland voters who voted in at least 1 of the last two Democratic primaries or were newly-registered since June 2014.

Our survey shows that Congressman Van Hollen maintains a 5-point lead over Congresswoman Edwards in the Democratic primary race: 45% Van Hollen, 40% Edwards, 15% undecided.

Van Hollen holds a near-double digit advantage in the Baltimore media market, and despite being outspent by a Super PAC backing Edwards in the Washington DC media market (which aired television ads on behalf of Edwards on March 1, while Van Hollen aired his first Broadcast TV ad in DC on March 29), the race is nearly tied.

Our survey shows that Van Hollen is well-positioned to grow his vote as the election draws nearer. First, Van Hollen has a superlative 12 to 1 positive to negative ratio among primary voters (including 13 to 1 among African-American voters), and despite the head-start Edwards had on STATEWIDE television, Van Hollen’s positive (60%) is higher than Edwards’ (53%).

Moreover, Van Hollen has a better image among the key bloc of undecided voters: 33% positive, 4% negative, versus 27% positive, 4% negative for Edwards.

In fact, among Maryland Democrats who have POSITIVE feelings toward BOTH candidates, Van Hollen has a slightly larger 49% to 40% lead, suggesting that he is poised to grow his support as we enter the stage where both campaigns increase their communication and grow their positives.

While primary elections are inherently fluid and Maryland Democrats face the prospect of choosing between two well-liked candidates, Chris Van Hollen’s record as a proven progressive who gets results clearly resonates throughout the electorate, and he is in a strong position to emerge victorious on April 26th.

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